Chemical

World Analysis – Chlor-Alkali

  • Market Overview
  • Key Benefits
  • Service Features
  • Annual Table of Contents

Market Overview

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050

Chlorine and caustic soda are co-produced through brine electrolysis, primarily through membrane or diaphragm electrolytic technology. Chlorine and caustic soda consumption are generally aligned with economic growth and activity. However, chlorine demand is closely correlated to construction activity, while caustic soda demand correlates more closely to general manufacturing activities, the global economy, and the consumption of durable and nondurable goods. Vinyls production is the largest global chlorine demand segment, which includes polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ethylene dichloride (EDC), and vinyl chloride monomer (VCM). Other significant global chlorine end uses include chlorinated intermediates, water treatment, MDI, TDI, and epichlorohydrin. Methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and toluene diisocyanate (TDI) have clean-energy applications in electric vehicles and wind turbines. Alumina refining for aluminum smelting is the largest global caustic soda consumption segment, followed by organic and inorganic chemicals manufacturing such as isocyanates, polycarbonates, and titanium dioxide. As vehicle electrification continues, more caustic soda will be consumed both for the processing of the metals required for lithium-ion batteries but also in the manufacturing and recycling of lithium battery cells.

The disparate demand drivers of caustic soda and chlorine frequently result in the two stoichiometrically related coproducts being in imbalanced demand tension, especially when external factors such as extreme weather events or interest rates inhibit or catalyze construction activity. As a result, the chlor-alkali industry has an economic cycle driven by the supply and demand dynamics of chlorine and caustic soda. The total electrochemical unit (ECU) value is aligned with the 1 metric ton chlorine to 1.1 dry metric ton caustic soda ratio that makes up the ECU. Ethylene prices magnify the complexity of ECU value dynamics through vinyls production, a segment that consumes more than one-third of all chlorine produced globally. In some geographies, this ratio is more than one-third, such as in the US, where a significant proportion of all chlorine demand is consumed for vinyls production. Fully-integrated chlor-vinyls producers consume electricity, salt, and ethylene in their plants and produce two end products: vinyls and caustic soda. Inasmuch, chlorine is only a manufacturing intermediate, the value of which is determined by the market prices of vinyls and caustic soda and the cost of ethylene. Therefore, in addition to supply/demand balance factors, the implied value of chlorine in integrated vinyls units influences the market value of caustic soda.

Key Benefits

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050

Overview

  • Maximize negotiating leverage with forward-looking country-specific supply-demand data.
  • Develop a winning strategy based on growth projections of market segments worldwide.
  • Gain clarity evaluating investment opportunities and analyzing market leadership out to 2050.
  • Mitigate risk with data about emerging international trade flows.

Data Included

The World Analysis – Chlor-Alkali provides a comprehensive analysis and key insights of critical market developments as they shape the future outlook for the global chlor-alkali market.

The following reports, data files, analytical tools and visualization modules are available online and can be downloaded from our website:

  • Report outlining key strategic insights and the future shape of global and regional markets.
  • Data Appendix (Excel) with supply/demand and capacity tables
  • Explanatory Notes detailing data sources, methodologies, unit and conversion factors, and World Analysis deliverables.
  • Energy and Economy assumptions
  • Price, cost and margin base assumptions forecast and sensitivities analysis; and price assessment methodology.
  • Excel data files with standard supply/demand graphics and price forecasts extended to 2050; trade grids with country and region trade flows.
  • Online dashboard providing visualization of capacity, supply/demand, trade grids, and price, cost and margin forecasts.
  • Supply/demand and capacity database access via data browser
  • Capacity by company/shareholder, capacity integration, top producer/consumer and surplus/deficit capacity ranking

In addition to the main product(s), chlorine and caustic soda, capacity and textual analysis is provided for the following products:

  • Alumina
  • Bromine
  • Caustic Soda
  • Chlorine
  • Chlorobenzene
  • Chloroform/Methylene Chloride
  • Epichlorohydrin
  • Ethylene Dichloride
  • Methyl Chloride
  • Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate
  • Perchloroethylene/Carbon Tetrachloride
  • Polycarbonate Resins
  • Potassium Hydroxide
  • Propylene Oxide
  • Pulp
  • Titanium Dioxide
  • Toluene Diisocyanate
  • 1,1,1 Trichloroethane
  • Trichloroethylene
  • Vinylidene Chloride
  • Anhydrous HCl

This World Analysis contains detailed information on capacities, production, demand and trade for all significant producing and consuming countries and regions. Although data gathering is essential for the understanding of history and potential future trends, we believe that the interpretation and analysis of the data is the most valuable part for our clients.

Service Features

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050


SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCES

Frequency: Bi-annual
Format: Excel
Timeframe: 10-year forecasts available from periods 1990 – 2050
Area Coverage: By country/region; include “hypothetical” capacity changes in the forecast period
Chemical Coverage: Chlorine, Caustic Soda

CAPACITY DATABASE

Frequency: Updated daily
Format: Excel
Timeframe: 10-year forecasts available from periods 1990 – 2050
Coverage:

  • Nameplate capacity on individual plant location by producer and by the shareholder for main study products + key derivatives
  • Integration table and top producer and consumer ranking tables (includes net surplus/deficit)
Chemical Coverage: Chlorine, Caustic Soda, Alumina, Bromine, Chlorobenzene, Chloroform/Methylene Chloride, Epichlorohydrin, EDC, HCl, Methyl Chloride, MDI, Perchloroethylene/Carbon Tet, Polycarbonate Resins, Potassium Hydroxide, Propylene Oxide, Sodium Chlorate, Titanium Dioxide, TDI, 1,1,1 Trichloroethane, Trichloroethylene, VCM

PRICE & COST FORECASTS

Frequency: Quarterly
Format: Excel
Timeframe: up to 2050
Area Coverage:Forecasts for US, Europe & Asia w/ qualitative sensitivities
Chemical Coverage: Chlorine, Caustic Soda

Capacity Integration

Frequency: Updated daily
Format: Excel
Timeframe: 10-year forecasts available from periods 1990 – 2050
Chemical Coverage: Chlorine, Caustic Soda

TRADE GRIDS

Frequency: Bi-annual
Format: Excel
Timeframe: 1 year of history, up to 10 years of forecast
Area Coverage:Between partner countries and by region
Chemical Coverage: Chlorine, Caustic Soda

REPORT WITH STRATEGIC INSIGHTS AND EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW

Frequency: Annual
Format: PDF/HTML
Timeframe: 5-year history, forecast to 2050
Coverage: Regional market summaries

  • Production economics/snapshots for selected regions/processes.
  • Production process/technology overview
Chemical Coverage: Chlorine, Caustic Soda

ADDITIONAL FEATURES

  • Access to our global team of subject matter experts
  • Interactive data visualization module (dashboard)
  • Standard supply/demand graphs
  • Data appendix with supply/demand and capacity tables

Annual Table of Contents

  • Introduction 5
  • Executive Overview 8
  • Strategic Insights 16
  • Mainland China’s Economy 16
  • Global Economic Forecast 17
  • Aluminum Decarbonization 18
  • Energy in Europe 19
  • Pending US Technology Transition 20
  • North America 22
  • South America 30
  • West Europe 36
  • Central Europe 42
  • CIS & Baltic States 47
  • Africa 52
  • Middle East 57
  • Indian Subcontinent 62
  • Mainland China 68
  • Other Northeast Asia 74
  • Southeast Asia 78
  • Derivatives Market Overview 83
  • Vinyls 83
  • Organics 84
  • Propylene oxide 84
  • Epichlorohydrin 85
  • Phosgene-Isocyanates 86
  • Phosgene-Polycarbonate 87
  • Vinylidene Chloride 87
  • Ethyleneamine 87
  • Chlorinated Intermediates 88
  • Summary 88
  • Chloromethanes and Chloroethanes 88
  • Methyl chloride 89
  • Methylene chloride 89
  • Chloroform 90
  • Perchloroethylene 90
  • Carbon tetrachloride 91
  • 1,1,1-Trichloroethane 91
  • Trichloroethylene 92
  • Inorganics 92
  • Titanium dioxide 92
  • Bromine 94
  • Water Treatment 94
  • Pulp and Paper 96
  • Alumina 98
  • Soaps and Detergents 99
  • Textiles 100
  • Sodium silicates 101
  • Other End Uses 101
  • Production Process Overview 103
  • Introduction 103
  • Diaphragm Cell 104
  • Membrane Cell 105
  • Mercury Cell 106
  • Production Process Economics 107
  • Explanatory Notes 107
  • Cogeneration 108
  • United States 109
  • West Europe 112
  • Middle East 114
  • Northeast Asia 115
  • Mainland China 117
  • Price Forecast 118
  • Methodology 118
  • Chlor-Alkali Price Cycle 119
  • Beginning of Cycle 119
  • Middle of Cycle 119
  • End of Cycle 120
  • United States 120
  • West Europe 122
  • Northeast Asia 123
  • Middle East 125
  • Price Forecast Tables 126
  • Supply/Demand Forecast Methodology 128
  • Chemical Supply/Demand Forecasting Methodology 128
  • Supply 128
  • Demand 129
  • Hypothetical Capacity 129
  • Trade 130

Market Coverage

Alumina

Pulp & Paper

Soap & Detergents

Textile

Ana Lopez

Ana Lopez Director, Americas Vinyls and Global Sodium Sulfate Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Ana Lopez is the Director of Americas Vinyls and Global Sodium Sulfate at Chemical Market Analytics. Ana Lopez is the Americas Director of Vinyls (PVC, VCM, EDC) research at Chemical Market Analytics. In addition, she is responsible for the global market analysis of sodium sulfate. She has held several roles across numerous product areas during her time with the company. With over 25 years of experience, Mrs. Lopez is a key resource within the business for understanding and insight into the chlor-alkali & vinyls sectors of the chemical industry. Within North America and South America, she works closely with the chlor-alkali and vinyls industries, bringing her experience from the commodity markets. Her current area of focus includes contributions to the ‘Global Vinyls Report as well as primary input and insight for the World Sodium Sulfate and World Vinyls analyses. Her prior experience includes covering caustic soda, chlorine, and hydrochloric acid. In this role, she was responsible for contributing to the Global Chlor-Alkali Report and World Analysis Chlor-Alkali. Before joining Chemical Market Analytics, Mrs. Lopez spent several years with Pemex International Trading Company (PMI) in Mexico City in petrochemical commercial operations and market analysis, preceded by a few years with the EPC company ICA Fluor Daniel. Mrs. Lopez has a Bachelor of Science in Chemical Engineering from Universidad Iberoamericana and a Master of Business Administration from Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico, both in Mexico City. She joined Chemical Market Analytics in 2007 and is based in the Houston office.
Eddie Kok

Eddie Kok Executive Director, Global Vinyls Service Lead Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Eddie Kok is the Executive Director of Global Vinyls Service Lead at Chemical Market Analytics Eddie Kok is the Executive Director and Global Service Leader for Chemical Market Analytics (CMA) Global Vinyls Market Advisory Service. During his time with the company, he has held various responsibilities within the Inorganics value chain, including Asia Lead for the chlor-alkali and vinyls market coverage. With over 20 years of chemicals sector research experience, Eddie is a crucial resource within the business for understanding and providing insight into chlor-alkali and vinyls markets. Eddie’s currently focuses on vinyls markets, directing a team of researcher colleagues around the globe to monitor and understand market developments within the vinyls value chain and provide CMA clients with insights and critical analytics that facilitate decisions. Eddie also researches and analyzes Asian KOH markets and works closely with his global Chlor-alkali colleagues in other ways to provide an integrated view of the chlor-alkali and vinyls businesses. Before joining Chemical Market Analytics, Eddie held multiple roles with CCM, a chlor-alkali producer based in Malaysia. His responsibilities at CMM included product portfolio management, production planning and regional sales. Mr. Kok holds a Bachelor’s degree in Chemistry from Campbell University, North Carolina, United States. He is currently based out of the Singapore office.
Francesco Martella

Francesco Martella Associate Director, EMEA Chlor-alkali Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Francesco Martella is currently the Associate Director for the EMEA region for Chlor-alkali, also in charge of the global sodium sulfate market. Prior to joining IHS Markit base chemical (now known as Chemical Market Analytics), Francesco has matured a long experience in the Technology industry as a Business Development Analyst in the Strategy, Operations, and M&A division at Salesforce. Before that, he worked in Milan as a Consultant at Oracle and People. Francesco holds a master's degree in Economics and Management of Innovation and Technology from Bocconi University and has recently completed an Executive Education course on Data Analysis for Management at the London School of Economics. As an Economics and Analytics expert, Francesco brings with him strong technological and economic expertise, together with a deep knowledge of the industry.
Gordon Kuo

Gordon Kuo Associate Director, Asia and India Subcontinent Vinyls Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Gordon Kuo is the Associate Director of Asia and India Subcontinent Vinyls at Chemical Market Analytics. Gordon Kuo is Associate Director of Vinyls research for Asia and the Indian Subcontinent at Chemical Market Analytics. He specializes in the polyvinyl chloride (PVC), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), and ethylene dichloride (EDC) markets in Asia and India subcontinent. He has over 12  years of experience and an in-depth understanding of the vinyls industry. Within the Asia region, Gordon works closely with chlor-alkali and vinyls industry participants. He provides regional market coverage for Asia and India subcontinent in the Global Vinyls Report. Gordon has in-depth experience and understanding of Asian EDC and VCM trade dynamics and provides strategy analyses for regional vinyls market participants. Additionally, he has experience researching Asian sodium chlorate and hydrogen peroxide while supporting the Global Bleaching Report. Before joining Chemical Market Analytics, Gordon held multiple roles in USI Group in Taiwan, including salt, ethylene, and EDC procurement, VCM sales, VCM and PVC production and operation management, marketing and cost analysis, and integrated vinyls business strategy development. Mr. Kuo holds a Master’s degree in Chemical Engineering from the National Taiwan University. He joined Chemical Market Analytics in 2019 and is currently based out of the Singapore office.
Hazel Kreuz

Hazel Kreuz Vice President, Global Inorganics Chemical Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Hazel Kreuz serves as the Vice President of Global Inorganic Chemicals at Chemical Market Analytics, which includes Chlor-alkali chemicals, Vinyls, Bleaching Chemicals, and Soda Ash. Ms. Kreuz brings four decades of chemical industry experience to the Chemical Market Analytics Inorganic chemicals insights team. She joined the IHS Markit base chemicals business (now known as Chemical Market Analytics) in 2016 as Chlor-alkali Chemicals Global Service Lead. Ms. Kreuz was promoted to her current role leading the Global Inorganic chemicals insights team in April 2019. She leads twenty analysts that analyze, forecast, and report on chlor-alkali chemicals, vinyls, bleaching chemicals, and soda ash from five global locations. Ms. Kreuz has a background in petrochemicals and inorganic chemicals; she held a range of functional roles in several companies prior to joining Chemical Market Analytics. Hazel began her career in ethylene oxide and glycols manufacturing with Union Carbide Corporation; she also held ethylene oxide derivatives, HS&E, risk analysis, financial analysis, and marketing management positions with Union Carbide. She was a recipient of Union Carbide Corporation's prestigious Chairman's Award for the development of the Corporations' Episodic Risk Management System, which Arthur D. Little praised as "elegant and sophisticated". Hazel moved to the inorganic chemicals world joining Canadian Occidental, which subsequently became Nexen Petroleum, and then Canexus, where she held management positions in chlor-alkali chemicals and sodium chlorate marketing, strategic planning, and investor relations. She returned to the US chemical market, joining Huntsman Corporation and serving as global marketing manager for mining chemicals, pulp & paper chemicals, and water treatment chemicals in the Performance Products division. Hazel holds a bachelor's degree in Chemical Engineering and an MBA.  
Henry Warren

Henry Warren Director, EMEA Vinyls and Middle East Caustic Soda Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Henry Warren is the Director of EMEA Vinyls and Middle East Caustic Soda at Chemical Market Analytics. Henry Warren is an integral Global Vinyls and Chlor-alkali Market Advisory Service member. Since joining the company in 2001, he has focused on vinyls, from polyvinyl chloride (PVC) through its precursors - ethylene dichloride (EDC) and vinyl chloride monomer (VCM). Since early 2024, he also assumed responsibility for caustic soda in the Middle East. During his time at the company, he has held various additional positions, including responsibility for chlorine, hydrochloric acid, chlorinated solvents, TiO2 and caustic potash. Along with the stakeholder relationships he has built over several decades, his in-depth understanding of the industry contributes to the unparalleled insight that Chemical Market Analytics brings to the vinyls and chlor-alkali sector. Henry provides coverage, analysis and insight into the vinyls value chain in EMEA and caustic soda in the Middle East in the Global Vinyls and Chlor-alkali Reports, respectively. He is also a key contributor to our Vinyls and Chlor-alkali World Analysis services. With a regional and global perspective, he works closely with clients across regions to provide support in relevant areas of the vinyls and chlor-alkali industries. He entered the field of chemical market analysis in 1996, analyzing feedstocks and several polyolefin value chains in Europe, North America and Latin America. Mr Warren holds a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Humberside, UK. He is a native English speaker, fluent in Spanish, proficient in French and resides near Oxford, UK.
Lina Suarez

Lina Suarez Executive Director, North America Chlor-alkali Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Lina Suarez is the Executive Director of North America Chlor-alkali Research at Chemical Market Analytics. Ms. Suarez is the Executive Director of North America Chlorine and Hydrochloric Acid. Over her tenure with CMA, she has held various roles, including Americas caustic soda market coverages. With over 25 years of extensive experience in integrated chlor-alkali, ethylene, and vinyls production chains, as well as other petrochemicals, Ms. Suarez is a crucial contributor to Chemical Market Analytics’ industry-leading expertise. Ms. Suarez currently focuses on the North America region, conducting research, analyzing, and reporting on the chlorine and hydrochloric acid markets. Lina works closely with clients in all regions and the financial sector to provide support and guidance on chlor-alkali chemicals. Before joining Chemical Market Analytics, Lina worked as a sales executive and product manager in multiple Latin American countries. Her experience includes positions as Commercial Director for PMV / Vestolit Mexico, guiding chlor-alkali, ethylene and VCM business strategies and commercial operations, and expertise defining new business models and executing sales programs in Mexico, Colombia and Brazil for chemical and oil companies, including 3M Colombia, DuPont México, Chevron México and BP México. Ms. Suarez holds a Bachelor’s degree in Chemical Engineering from the Universidad Nacional de Colombia,  an MBA in Finance from the Universidad Externado de Colombia, and a Marketing Degree from the Universidad Iberoamericana de Mexico. Lina has resided in Houston, TX, since joining Chemical Market Analytics in 2019.
Nick Kovics

Nick Kovics Vice President, Global Chlor-Alkali Service Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Nick Kovics is the Vice President of the Global Chlor-alkali Market Advisory Service team at Chemical Market Analytics. Nick Kovics is the Vice President leading the Global Chlor-alkali Market Advisory Service team. During his time with the company he has held a variety of roles in the Inorganics value chain, including bleaching Chemicals and battery materials. With over 25 years of chemical industry experience, Nick is a key resource within the business for understanding and insight into global chlor-alkali markets. In addition to leading the chlor-alkali team, Nick also provides regional market coverage for US caustic soda in the Global Chlor-alkali Report and Chlor-alkali World Analysis. With global responsibility, he works closely with clients in all regions as well as the financial sector to provide support and guidance on the inorganics chain. Nick held various functional roles in several companies before joining Chemical Market Analytics. He began his career in the energy sector with Schlumberger Canada cementing and hydraulic fracturing services. Nick then transitioned from oil and gas to new energy and spent a decade in the hydrogen fuel cell sector. Nick continued in the electrochemical sector by joining Canexus (now Chemtrade) and held commercial leadership roles in chlor-alkali and sodium chlorate marketing. Mr. Kovics holds a Bachelor’s degree in Chemical Engineering from the University of British Columbia, and an MBA from Simon Fraser University. He is a registered Canadian Professional Engineer and a Canadian Chartered Professional Accountant. Nick has resided in Houston, TX, since joining Chemical Market Analytics in 2017.
Paulo Pereira

Paulo Pereira Executive Director, Latin America Caustic Soda and Bleaching Chemicals Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Paulo Pereira is the Executive Director of the LAT Chlor-Alkali and Bleaching Chemicals business at Chemical Market Analytics. Paulo Pereira is an Executive Director responsible for Caustic Soda and Bleaching Chemicals market research and analysis for Latin America. During his tenure with the company, he also covered the North American caustic soda market in 2023. In addition, Paulo also provides regional support in the Chlor-alkali World Analysis reports. Before joining Chemical Market Analytics, Paulo worked in the chemical industry for many years. Immediately after university graduation, he joined Dow Chemical in their operations at the Guaruja Site in Sao Paulo, Brazil. After several international transfers and 22 years of operating Epoxy and Polyurethanes facilities and sites in Brazil, the US and Italy, Paulo joined Dow’s Technology Centers division, leading global PU and Alkoxylation technology teams. In 2019, he was seconded to Sadara Chemical Company in Al Jubail, Saudi Arabia, as Technology Director, and repatriated to the US in 2021, retiring from his 37-year career with Dow. Mr. Pereira holds a Bachelor of Science in Chemical Engineering from Maua Engineering School in Sao Paulo, Brazil. He has lived and worked in leadership positions in Brazil, the United States, Italy and Saudi Arabia. Throughout his career, he developed a deep understanding of petrochemical chain integration, operational aspects and cost & capital perspectives for many technologies, from olefins to PU-formulated systems specialties. Paulo has resided in Houston, TX, since 2017 and joined Chemical Market Analytics in December 2022.
Wilson Loh

Wilson Loh Director, Asia Chlor Alkali Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Wilson Loh is the Director for Asian Chlor-alkali at Chemical Market Analytics. Wilson Loh is a Research and Analysis Director in the Chemical Market Analytics Global Chlor-alkali Team. Before joining, he gained extensive experience through his decades of work in commercial and trading positions in chlor-alkali and other chemical industries. Wilson’s deep experience facilitates his work in conducting extensive research and analysis on the chlor-alkali markets in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Subcontinent. He authors the Asian report section of the Global Chlor-alkali Market Report (GCR), which covers his assessments of chlorine and caustic soda markets across Asia. He also provides long-term projections for Asian markets through his contributions to the World Chlor-alkali Analysis. Before joining Chemical Market Analytics, Wilson spent years at Basic Chemical Solutions (BCS) and Univar in chlor-alkali products distribution and trading in the Asian market. His work at BCS and Univar was preceded by several years in a commercial position at Chemical Industries Far East, a chlor-alkali producer. Mr. Loh holds a BBA and MBA degree from the University of San Francisco. He joined Chemical Market Analytics in 2017 and is currently based in the Singapore office.
Xingyu Zhu

Xingyu Zhu Director, Mainland China Vinyls & Chlor-alkali Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Xinyu Zhu is the Director of the Global Chlor-alkali/Vinyls team at Chemical Market Analytics. Xingyu Zhu is Director of Chlor-alkali & Vinyls in Mainland China at Chemical Market Analytics. During his time with the company, he has held various roles in the Inorganics value chain, including research and analysis of chlor-alkali, vinyls, soda ash, sodium chlorate and hydrogen peroxide. With over 20 years of chemical industry experience, Xingyu is a key resource within the business for understanding and insight into the Mainland China chlor-alkali and vinyls markets. In Mainland China, Xingyu works closely with the chlor-alkali and vinyls industries. He provides regional market coverage for mainland China’s caustic soda, chlorine, and PVC in the Global Chlor-alkali Report and the Global Vinyls Report. Xingyu has more than 20 years of experience in the chlor-alkali and vinyls industry. He began his career in China Chlor-alkali Industry Association(CCAIA) and worked there for 12 years. In this role, Xingyu became an industry expert in chlor-alkali and vinyls market analysis. Before joining Chemical Market Analytics, Xingyu also held commercial roles in petrochemicals in ICIS. Mr.Zhu holds a Bachelor’s in International Trade from Shenyang University Of Chemical Technology. Xingyu joined Chemical Market Analytics in 2017 and is based in the Beijing, China office.

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