Chemical

World Analysis – Vinyls

  • Market Overview
  • Key Benefits
  • Service Features
  • Annual Table of Contents

Market Overview

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050

The vinyls chain, comprised of ethylene dichloride (EDC), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), is a critical component of the global petrochemical and thermoplastics sectors. PVC is a competitive and attractive option for many end-use applications due to its physical and chemical properties. PVC is often used for its versatility, durability, self-extinguishing properties, chemical and oil resistance, mechanical stability, ease of processing and molding. Common PVC sectors include construction, infrastructure, agricultural, electrical, automotive, and healthcare products. PVC resin can easily combine with many solvents and additives and can be compounded or fabricated into various forms. These forms most notably include pipes, fittings, profiles, tubes, windows, doors, sidings, wire, cable, film, sheet, and flooring.

The global vinyls business is highly competitive, and exporting producers continuously strive to optimize cost efficiencies to maintain competitive market positions. Producers in low-cost regions with advantaged energy and feedstock costs tend to have the most attractive cost positions and the most significant shares in the export market. Major exporting regions include North America, the Middle East (mainly EDC and VCM), and the Asia Pacific region. Over the past decade, PVC integration into chlorine, EDC, and VCM has grown in most regions. Further upstream integration into ethylene can provide an economic advantage for chlor-vinyls producers. However, the PVC business often competes with other ethylene derivatives in regions with domestic ethylene availability. Downstream integration into PVC-fabricated products or compounding could become more common as a low-cost option to add value to PVC resin. The PVC business also competes with other polymers, primarily high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and other material substitutes, including glass, wood, aluminum, steel, iron, and concrete. As a result, PVC demand is price-sensitive to material competition.

Key Benefits

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050

The World Analysis – Vinyls provides a comprehensive analysis and key insights of critical market developments as they shape the future outlook for the global Vinyls market.

The following reports, data files, analytical tools and visualization modules are available online and can be downloaded from our website:

  • Direct Access to the Subject Matter Experts
  • In-depth exploration of present market strategic insights, recognition of key challenges, and presentation of our experts’ forecasts and analysis
  • Explanatory Notes detailing data sources, methodologies, unit and conversion factors, and World Analysis deliverables.
  • Energy and Economy assumptions
  • Price, cost and margin base assumptions forecast and sensitivities analysis, including price assessment methodology, including price definitions across all regions.
  • Excel data files with standard supply/demand graphics and price forecasts extended to 2050, trade grids with country and regional trade flows Data appendix (Excel) with supply/demand, capacity and trade tables.
  • An online dashboard visualization of capacity, supply/demand, trade grids, and price, cost and margin forecasts
  • Supply/demand and capacity database access via data browser
  • Data Appendix (Excel) with supply/demand and capacity tables
  • Capacity by company/shareholder, capacity integration, top producer/consumer and surplus/deficit capacity ranking, and ownership/subsidiary information

In addition to the main product(s), capacity and textual analysis are provided for the following products:

Supply/Demand Balances

  • Polyvinyl Chloride
  • Vinyl Chloride Monomer
  • Ethylene Dichloride

Capacity

  • Polyvinyl Chloride
  • Vinyl Chloride Monomer
  • Ethylene Dichloride
  • Other Vinyls

This World Analysis contains detailed information on capacities, production, demand, and trade for all significant producing and consuming countries and regions. Although data gathering is essential for understanding history and potential future trends, we believe that the interpretation and analysis of the data is the most valuable information to our clients.

Service Features

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050


SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCES

Frequency: Bi-annual
Format: Excel
Timeframe: 10-year forecasts available from periods 1990 – 2050
Area Coverage: By country/region; include “hypothetical” capacity changes in the forecast period
Chemical Coverage: Ethylene Dichloride (EDC), Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM), Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)

CAPACITY DATABASE

Frequency: Updated daily
Format: Excel
Timeframe: 10-year forecasts available from periods 1990 – 2050
Coverage:

  • Nameplate capacity on individual plant location by producer and by the shareholder for main study products + essential derivatives
  • Integration table and top producer and consumer ranking tables (includes net surplus/deficit)
Chemical Coverage: Ethylene Dichloride (EDC), Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM), Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC), Other Vinyls

PRICE & COST FORECASTS

Frequency: Quarterly
Format: Excel
Timeframe: up to 2050
Area Coverage: Forecasts for US, Europe & Asia w/ qualitative sensitivities
Chemical Coverage: Ethylene Dichloride (EDC), Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)

TRADE GRIDS

Frequency: Bi-annual
Format: Excel
Timeframe: 1 year of history, up to 10 years of forecast
Area Coverage: Between partner countries and by region
Chemical Coverage: Toluene, Mixed Xylenes, Orthoxylene

REPORT WITH STRATEGIC INSIGHTS AND EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW

Frequency: Annual
Format: PDF/HTML
Timeframe: 5-year history, forecast to 2050
Coverage: Regional market summaries

  • Production economics/snapshots for selected regions/processes
  • Production process/technology overview
Chemical Coverage: Ethylene Dichloride (EDC), Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM), Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)

ADDITIONAL FEATURES

  • Access to our global team of subject matter experts
  • Interactive data visualization module (dashboard)
  • Standard supply/demand graphs
  • Data appendix with supply/demand and capacity tables
  • Supply/demand and capacity database access via data browser

Annual Table of Contents

  • Introduction 4
  • Executive Overview 7
  • Strategic Insights 12
  • Global Economic Forecast 12
  • Economic Slowdown in Mainland China 12
  • Global Trade Patterns 14
  • Russian Trade Patterns 16
  • US Chlor-Alkali Technology Evolution 18
  • North America 20
  • South America 27
  • West Europe 32
  • Central Europe 38
  • CIS & Baltic States 43
  • Africa 48
  • Middle East 53
  • Indian Subcontinent 58
  • Mainland China 63
  • Other Northeast Asia 70
  • Southeast Asia 75
  • Production Process Overview 80
  • Chlor-Alkali/Vinyls Chain 80
  • Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) 80
  • Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM) 85
  • Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) 86
  • Production Process Economics 87
  • Explanatory Notes 87
  • PVC Production Process Economics -North America 87
  • PVC Production Process Economics -West Europe 88
  • PVC Production Economics - Northeast Asia 89
  • PVC Production Process Economics - Mainland China 90
  • Price Forecast 91
  • Methodology 91
  • North America 91
  • West Europe 94
  • Northeast Asia 95
  • Price Forecast Tables 97
  • Supply/Demand Forecast Methodology 98

Market Coverage

Buildings & Constructions

Film & Sheet

Pipe & Profile

Wire & Cable

Ana Lopez

Ana Lopez Director, Americas Vinyls and Global Sodium Sulfate Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Ana Lopez is the Director of Americas Vinyls and Global Sodium Sulfate at Chemical Market Analytics. Ana Lopez is the Americas Director of Vinyls (PVC, VCM, EDC) research at Chemical Market Analytics. In addition, she is responsible for the global market analysis of sodium sulfate. She has held several roles across numerous product areas during her time with the company. With over 25 years of experience, Mrs. Lopez is a key resource within the business for understanding and insight into the chlor-alkali & vinyls sectors of the chemical industry. Within North America and South America, she works closely with the chlor-alkali and vinyls industries, bringing her experience from the commodity markets. Her current area of focus includes contributions to the ‘Global Vinyls Report as well as primary input and insight for the World Sodium Sulfate and World Vinyls analyses. Her prior experience includes covering caustic soda, chlorine, and hydrochloric acid. In this role, she was responsible for contributing to the Global Chlor-Alkali Report and World Analysis Chlor-Alkali. Before joining Chemical Market Analytics, Mrs. Lopez spent several years with Pemex International Trading Company (PMI) in Mexico City in petrochemical commercial operations and market analysis, preceded by a few years with the EPC company ICA Fluor Daniel. Mrs. Lopez has a Bachelor of Science in Chemical Engineering from Universidad Iberoamericana and a Master of Business Administration from Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico, both in Mexico City. She joined Chemical Market Analytics in 2007 and is based in the Houston office.
Eddie Kok

Eddie Kok Executive Director, Global Vinyls Service Lead Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Eddie Kok is the Executive Director of Global Vinyls Service Lead at Chemical Market Analytics Eddie Kok is the Executive Director and Global Service Leader for Chemical Market Analytics (CMA) Global Vinyls Market Advisory Service. During his time with the company, he has held various responsibilities within the Inorganics value chain, including Asia Lead for the chlor-alkali and vinyls market coverage. With over 20 years of chemicals sector research experience, Eddie is a crucial resource within the business for understanding and providing insight into chlor-alkali and vinyls markets. Eddie’s currently focuses on vinyls markets, directing a team of researcher colleagues around the globe to monitor and understand market developments within the vinyls value chain and provide CMA clients with insights and critical analytics that facilitate decisions. Eddie also researches and analyzes Asian KOH markets and works closely with his global Chlor-alkali colleagues in other ways to provide an integrated view of the chlor-alkali and vinyls businesses. Before joining Chemical Market Analytics, Eddie held multiple roles with CCM, a chlor-alkali producer based in Malaysia. His responsibilities at CMM included product portfolio management, production planning and regional sales. Mr. Kok holds a Bachelor’s degree in Chemistry from Campbell University, North Carolina, United States. He is currently based out of the Singapore office.
Gordon Kuo

Gordon Kuo Associate Director, Asia and India Subcontinent Vinyls Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Gordon Kuo is the Associate Director of Asia and India Subcontinent Vinyls at Chemical Market Analytics. Gordon Kuo is Associate Director of Vinyls research for Asia and the Indian Subcontinent at Chemical Market Analytics. He specializes in the polyvinyl chloride (PVC), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), and ethylene dichloride (EDC) markets in Asia and India subcontinent. He has over 12  years of experience and an in-depth understanding of the vinyls industry. Within the Asia region, Gordon works closely with chlor-alkali and vinyls industry participants. He provides regional market coverage for Asia and India subcontinent in the Global Vinyls Report. Gordon has in-depth experience and understanding of Asian EDC and VCM trade dynamics and provides strategy analyses for regional vinyls market participants. Additionally, he has experience researching Asian sodium chlorate and hydrogen peroxide while supporting the Global Bleaching Report. Before joining Chemical Market Analytics, Gordon held multiple roles in USI Group in Taiwan, including salt, ethylene, and EDC procurement, VCM sales, VCM and PVC production and operation management, marketing and cost analysis, and integrated vinyls business strategy development. Mr. Kuo holds a Master’s degree in Chemical Engineering from the National Taiwan University. He joined Chemical Market Analytics in 2019 and is currently based out of the Singapore office.
Henry Warren

Henry Warren Director, EMEA Vinyls and Middle East Caustic Soda Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Henry Warren is the Director of EMEA Vinyls and Middle East Caustic Soda at Chemical Market Analytics. Henry Warren is an integral Global Vinyls and Chlor-alkali Market Advisory Service member. Since joining the company in 2001, he has focused on vinyls, from polyvinyl chloride (PVC) through its precursors - ethylene dichloride (EDC) and vinyl chloride monomer (VCM). Since early 2024, he also assumed responsibility for caustic soda in the Middle East. During his time at the company, he has held various additional positions, including responsibility for chlorine, hydrochloric acid, chlorinated solvents, TiO2 and caustic potash. Along with the stakeholder relationships he has built over several decades, his in-depth understanding of the industry contributes to the unparalleled insight that Chemical Market Analytics brings to the vinyls and chlor-alkali sector. Henry provides coverage, analysis and insight into the vinyls value chain in EMEA and caustic soda in the Middle East in the Global Vinyls and Chlor-alkali Reports, respectively. He is also a key contributor to our Vinyls and Chlor-alkali World Analysis services. With a regional and global perspective, he works closely with clients across regions to provide support in relevant areas of the vinyls and chlor-alkali industries. He entered the field of chemical market analysis in 1996, analyzing feedstocks and several polyolefin value chains in Europe, North America and Latin America. Mr Warren holds a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Humberside, UK. He is a native English speaker, fluent in Spanish, proficient in French and resides near Oxford, UK.
Xingyu Zhu

Xingyu Zhu Director, Mainland China Vinyls & Chlor-alkali Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Xinyu Zhu is the Director of the Global Chlor-alkali/Vinyls team at Chemical Market Analytics. Xingyu Zhu is Director of Chlor-alkali & Vinyls in Mainland China at Chemical Market Analytics. During his time with the company, he has held various roles in the Inorganics value chain, including research and analysis of chlor-alkali, vinyls, soda ash, sodium chlorate and hydrogen peroxide. With over 20 years of chemical industry experience, Xingyu is a key resource within the business for understanding and insight into the Mainland China chlor-alkali and vinyls markets. In Mainland China, Xingyu works closely with the chlor-alkali and vinyls industries. He provides regional market coverage for mainland China’s caustic soda, chlorine, and PVC in the Global Chlor-alkali Report and the Global Vinyls Report. Xingyu has more than 20 years of experience in the chlor-alkali and vinyls industry. He began his career in China Chlor-alkali Industry Association(CCAIA) and worked there for 12 years. In this role, Xingyu became an industry expert in chlor-alkali and vinyls market analysis. Before joining Chemical Market Analytics, Xingyu also held commercial roles in petrochemicals in ICIS. Mr.Zhu holds a Bachelor’s in International Trade from Shenyang University Of Chemical Technology. Xingyu joined Chemical Market Analytics in 2017 and is based in the Beijing, China office.

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