World Analysis – Vinyls

Long-term outlook to 2060

The vinyls value chain, comprising ethylene dichloride (EDC), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), is a cornerstone of the global petrochemical and thermoplastics industries. PVC remains one of the most widely used polymers due to its exceptional versatility, durability, self-extinguishing behavior, chemical and oil resistance, mechanical strength, and ease of processing and molding. These properties make PVC a preferred material across major end-use sectors, including construction, infrastructure, agriculture, electrical applications, automotive components, and healthcare products. PVC resin can be readily combined with a wide range of solvents and additives and can be compounded or fabricated into diverse forms such as pipes, fittings, profiles, tubes, windows, doors, sidings, wire and cable insulation, films, sheets, and flooring.

The global vinyls industry is intensely competitive, with exporting producers continuously optimizing operations to maintain cost leadership. Producers located in low-cost regions with advantaged energy and feedstock economics, notably North America, the Middle East (particularly for EDC and VCM), and parts of the Asia Pacific, hold strong export positions. Over the past decade, many regions have expanded downstream and upstream integration, linking PVC production more closely with chlorine, EDC, VCM, and, in some cases, ethylene. Further integration into ethylene can enhance competitiveness for chlor-vinyls producers, although PVC often competes directly with other ethylene derivatives where domestic ethylene supply is abundant.

Downstream integration into PVC compounding and fabricated products is increasingly viewed as a cost-effective route to value creation, enabling producers to capture additional margins. However, PVC also competes with alternative materials, including HDPE, as well as glass, wood, aluminum, steel, iron, and concrete. This competitive landscape makes PVC demand inherently price-sensitive and strongly influenced by the relative cost-performance profiles of substitute materials.

Long-term outlook to 2060

The World Analysis – Vinyls provides an in-depth assessment of the global vinyls market, providing comprehensive analysis and strategic insights into the key developments shaping long-term supply, demand, trade, and pricing outlooks. This service equips industry participants with the analytical foundation needed to navigate market volatility and anticipate structural shifts across the vinyls value chain.

Subscribers gain access to a full suite of reports, data files, analytical tools, and visualization modules, available online and downloadable from our website, including:

• A strategic report outlining critical insights and the future trajectory of global and regional markets

• Online Data Browser access to supply, demand, and capacity databases

• Continuously updated company/shareholder capacity listings, capacity integration analysis, and rankings of top producers/consumers, including surplus/deficit capacity profiles

• A comprehensive Data Appendix (Excel) featuring supply/demand and capacity tables, plus a dashboard with standard visualizations for all countries and regions

• Excel data files with long-range supply/demand graphics and price forecasts through 2060, along with detailed trade grids showing country- and region-level trade flows with 5- and 10-year projections

• An interactive online dashboard visualizing capacity, integration, supply/demand balances, trade flows, and price, cost, and margin forecasts

• Explanatory Notes detailing data sources, methodology, assumptions, units, conversion factors, and full World Analysis deliverables

• Energy and macroeconomic assumptions used in the long-term outlook

• Price assessment methodology and forecasting framework

This World Analysis provides detailed intelligence on capacities, production, demand, and trade across all major producing and consuming countries, regions, and global hubs. While robust data collection underpins the historical and forward views, the true value of the service lies in the expert interpretation and market analysis applied by our global team.

Data verification is a central pillar of our approach. Direct engagement with key industry participants ensures that our conclusions reflect real-world market behavior and deliver the most accurate, realistic forward outlook for the global vinyls industry.

Long-term outlook to 2060