World Analysis – Methanol

Long-term outlook to 2060

Methanol is one of the most essential commodity chemicals used in global chemical synthesis, serving as a fundamental building block for a wide range of downstream products that touch nearly every aspect of modern life. It is a critical feedstock for major chemicals such as formaldehyde, MTBE, acetic acid, methylamines, methyl methacrylate (MMA), dimethyl ether (DME), and dimethyl terephthalate (DMT). In recent years, methanol demand has expanded significantly due to its growing role in the Methanol-to-Olefins (MTO) process, which produces olefins and polyolefins to support the plastics and packaging industries. Beyond chemical production, methanol is also used as a biodiesel component, a gasoline blendstock, a boiler fuel, and—as seen in mainland China, as a transportation fuel in blends ranging from M5 to M100.

Commercial methanol is primarily produced from natural gas or coal through a three-step sequence: synthesis gas production, methanol synthesis, and final distillation. Feedstocks such as natural gas or coal are first converted into syngas through reforming, oxidation, or gasification. The syngas is then catalytically converted into crude methanol, which is subsequently purified to a commercial-grade product through distillation. While all commercial technologies follow these same basic steps, they differ in the specific processes used to generate and convert syngas. Methanol production economics are heavily influenced by feedstock costs—natural gas prices drive margins in most regions, while coal costs are the dominant factor for producers in mainland China.

Growing interest in sustainable chemicals has accelerated the development of e-methanol, which is produced from captured carbon dioxide and renewable hydrogen. As global industries pursue lower-carbon pathways, e-methanol is emerging as a promising solution for reducing emissions in fuel applications, marine transport, and chemical production.

Long-term outlook to 2060

The World Analysis – Methanol provides an in-depth assessment of the global methanol market, offering comprehensive analysis and strategic insights into the key developments that shape the long-term supply, demand, trade, and pricing outlooks. This service equips industry participants with the analytical foundation needed to navigate market volatility and anticipate structural shifts across the methanol value chain.

Subscribers gain access to a full suite of reports, data files, analytical tools, and visualization modules, available online and downloadable from our website, including:

• A strategic report outlining critical insights and the future trajectory of global and regional markets

• Online Data Browser access to supply, demand, and capacity databases

• Continuously updated company/shareholder capacity listings, capacity integration analysis, and rankings of top producers/consumers, including surplus/deficit capacity profiles

• A comprehensive Data Appendix (Excel) featuring supply/demand and capacity tables, plus a dashboard with standard visualizations for all countries and regions

• Excel data files with long-range supply/demand graphics and price forecasts through 2060, along with detailed trade grids showing country- and region-level trade flows with 5- and 10-year projections

• An interactive online dashboard visualizing capacity, integration, supply/demand balances, trade flows, and price, cost, and margin forecasts

• Explanatory Notes detailing data sources, methodology, assumptions, units, conversion factors, and full World Analysis deliverables

• Energy and macroeconomic assumptions used in the long-term outlook

• Price assessment methodology and forecasting framework

In addition to the main product, Methanol, capacity and textual analysis are provided for the following products:

• Acetic Acid
• Biodiesel
• Chloromethanes
• Dimethyl ether
• Formaldehyde
• Gasoline Blending
• Methanol-to-olefins / Methanol-to-Propylene
• Methyl methacrylate
• Methyl tert-butyl ether
• Methylamine
• Methanol as a marine bunker fuel

This World Analysis provides detailed intelligence on capacities, production, demand, and trade across all major producing and consuming countries, regions, and global hubs. While robust data collection underpins the historical and forward views, the true value of the service lies in the expert interpretation and market analysis applied by our global team.

Data verification is a central pillar of our approach. Direct engagement with key industry participants ensures that our conclusions reflect real-world market behavior and deliver the most accurate, realistic forward outlook for the global methanol industry.

Long-term outlook to 2060