World Analysis – Ethylene

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050

Diisocyanates and polyisocyanates are reactive intermediates, which typically are reacted with the hydroxyl groups of polyol coreactants to form polyurethanes. Toluene diisocyanate (TDI, also called tolylenediisocyanate) is derived from toluene and is most commonly used for flexible foam used in furniture, bedding, and automotive components. A fast-growing application of TDI is in electric vehicles that require strong, but lightweight, materials. As advancements continue in the development of electric vehicles, TDI consumption per vehicle is expected to trend upward to ensure electric vehicles are as light as possible. Another area with high growth opportunities is the development of more environmentally friendly flexible foams for the automotive industry, including TDI-based flexible polyurethane foams made with renewable or recycled polyether polyols.

The three largest producers, BASF, Covestro, and Wanhua Chemical, account for about 60% of global nameplate capacity as the TDI market is concentrated owing to high barriers of entry related to proprietary technology and complex production processes. However, technology licensing has become less of an obstacle as producers have developed their own technology, especially in mainland China. Over 90% of TDI capacity is in Northeast Asia (mainly mainland China), West Europe, and the United States. New world-scale capacity in the future will likely be limited to the Asia Pacific region, particularly in mainland China. In the U.S., producers may decide to debottleneck existing plants given the low-cost position. In other emerging economies, such as India, the Middle East, and Central Europe, construction of TDI plants could occur over the next ten years. The concentration of production and exports within only a few markets contrasts with a high number of importing markets. The largest net importers include Brazil, Poland, Russia, Turkey, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam.

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050

The World Analysis – Ethylene provides a comprehensive analysis and key insights of critical market developments as they shape the future outlook for the global ethylene market.

The following reports, data files, analytical tools and visualization modules are available online and can be downloaded from our website:

• Direct Access to the Subject Matter Experts
• In-depth exploration of present market strategic insights, recognition of key challenges, and presentation of our experts’ forecasts and analysis
• Explanatory Notes detailing data sources, methodologies, unit and conversion factors, and World Analysis deliverables.
• Energy and Economy assumptions
• Price, cost and margin base assumptions forecast and sensitivities analysis, including price assessment methodology, including price definitions across all regions.
• Excel data files with standard supply/demand graphics and price forecasts extended to 2050, trade grids with country and regional trade flows Data appendix (Excel) with supply/demand, capacity and trade tables.
• An online dashboard visualization of capacity, supply/demand, trade grids, and price, cost and margin forecasts
• Supply/demand and capacity database access via data browser
• Data Appendix (Excel) with supply/demand and capacity tables
• Capacity by company/shareholder, capacity integration, top producer/consumer and surplus/deficit capacity ranking, and ownership/subsidiary information

In addition to the main product, ethylene, capacity data and brief textual analysis are provided for the following products:

• Acetaldehyde (ACH)
• Alpha Olefins (AOL)
• Ethanol (EOH)
• Ethyl Chloride (ECL)
• Ethylbenzene (EBZ)
• Ethylene Dichloride (EDC)
• Ethylene Oxide (EOX)
• Ethylene Propylene Rubber (EPR)
• High Density Polyethylene (HDPE)
• Low Density Polyethylene (LDPE)
• Linear Low Density Polyethylene (LLDE)
• Propionaldehyde (PRH)
• Vinyl Acetate (VAM)

This World Analysis contains detailed information on capacities, production, demand, and trade for all significant producing and consuming countries and regions. Although data gathering is essential for understanding history and potential future trends, we believe that the interpretation and analysis of the data is the most valuable information to our clients.

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050