World Analysis – Propylene

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050

Propylene is second only to ethylene by volume as a structural material platform for producing other organic chemicals and, like ethylene, it has virtually no use in consumer markets without being processed into some derivative product. Downstream it is polymerized (as in the production of polypropylene) or reacted with other chemicals (as in the production of acrylonitrile, propylene oxide, and oxo alcohols) to produce a large variety of industrial products. Polypropylene consumes approximately 70% of all propylene produced globally. Propylene is commercially generated as a coproduct, either in an olefins plant or in the fluidized catalytic cracking (FCC) unit of a crude oil refinery, but it can also be produced on-purpose in propane dehydrogenation (PDH), metathesis, or methanol-to-olefins (MTO) plants.

After ethylene, the second-largest volume product from a steam cracker is typically propylene. In fact, the production of propylene from such a plant is so important that the name “olefins plant” is often applied to this kind of manufacturing facility. Except where ethane is used as the feedstock, propylene is typically produced at levels ranging from 40% to 60% of the ethylene produced dependent on feedslate used. In an olefins plant, propylene is generated by the same pyrolysis and purification processes as ethylene. It is recovered as either chemical grade (92 to 96% purity) or polymer grade (99.5% purity) and must be essentially free of diolefins, acetylenes, and other olefins. Propylene generated by a refinery FCC generally has a purity of 65–80%, depending upon operating conditions of the unit. Refinery-grade propylene has several potential consumption options: acid alkylation; dimersol and polymer gasoline; propane blending; direct consumption into chemicals, such as cumene, isopropanol, and oligomers; and purification to polymer-grade propylene (PGP) or chemical-grade propylene (CGP). FCC units designed for enhanced propylene production typically include purification to PGP or CGP. PDH makes ups the largest on-purpose route to propylene.

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050

The World Analysis – Propylene provides a comprehensive analysis and key insights of critical market developments as they shape the future outlook for the global propylene market.

The following reports, data files, analytical tools and visualization modules are available online and can be downloaded from our website:

• Direct Access to the Subject Matter Experts
• In-depth exploration of present market strategic insights, recognition of key challenges, and presentation of our experts’ forecasts and analysis
• Explanatory Notes detailing data sources, methodologies, unit and conversion factors, and World Analysis deliverables.
• Energy and Economy assumptions
• Price, cost and margin base assumptions forecast and sensitivities analysis, including price assessment methodology, including price definitions across all regions.
• Excel data files with standard supply/demand graphics and price forecasts extended to 2050, trade grids with country and regional trade flows Data appendix (Excel) with supply/demand, capacity and trade tables.
• An online dashboard visualization of capacity, supply/demand, trade grids, and price, cost and margin forecasts
• Supply/demand and capacity database access via data browser
• Data Appendix (Excel) with supply/demand and capacity tables
• Capacity by company/shareholder, capacity integration, top producer/consumer and surplus/deficit capacity ranking, and ownership/subsidiary information

In addition to the main products, polymer grade/chemical grade propylene (PGP/CGP), refinery grade propylene (RGP) and total propylene, capacity data and brief textual analysis is also provided for the following products:

• Acrylic Acid (ACA)
• Acrylonitrile (ACN)
• Normal Butanol (NBO)
• Cumene (CUM)
• Epichlorohydrin (EPI)
• 2-Ethylhexanol (2EH)
• Ethylene Propylene Rubber (EPDM)
• Isobutanol (IBO)
• Isopropanol (IPA)
• Propylene Oligomers (OLI)
• Nonene (Propylene Trimer)
• Dodecene (Propylene Tetramer)
• Polypropylene (PPE)
• Propylene Oxide (POX)
• Fluid Catalytic Cracking Units (FCC)

This World Analysis contains detailed information on capacities, production, demand, and trade for all significant producing and consuming countries and regions. Although data gathering is essential for understanding history and potential future trends, we believe that the interpretation and analysis of the data is the most valuable information to our clients.

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050