World Analysis – Butadiene

Long-term outlook to 2060

Global butadiene demand is primarily driven by the synthetic rubber industry, especially for tire manufacturing. Polybutadiene rubber (PBR) and styrene-butadiene rubber (E-SBR and S-SBR) are the dominant consumption outlets, together accounting for more than half of global butadiene use. Other major demand segments include acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS), styrene-butadiene latex (SBL), nitrile latex (NBL), and adiponitrile (ADN), a key intermediate for nylon 6,6. Additional butadiene derivatives, though smaller in volume, remain strategically important, such as nitrile rubber (NBR), polychloroprene (PCR), and thermoplastic elastomers (TPE). While the mobility sector (tires and automotive components) represents the largest share of butadiene consumption, downstream industries producing electronics, plastics (e.g., HIPS), carpeting, paper, and household appliances also contribute meaningfully to global demand.

Since the mid-1970s, butadiene supply has been overwhelmingly dependent on steam crackers, where it is produced as a co-product during ethylene manufacturing. Unlike other petrochemical commodities such as propylene, which can leverage multiple production sources, including refineries and on-purpose routes, incremental butadiene supply remains tightly linked to ethylene cracker operations. This structural limitation underscores the importance for C4 olefins market participants to closely monitor crude C4 availability and long-term supply dynamics.

Alternative production routes will continue to represent only about 5–6% of global butadiene supply over the forecast period. Within this segment, traditional butylene dehydrogenation is expected to lose market share, while methanol-to-olefins/coal-to-olefins (MTO/CTO) and emerging biobased pathways gradually increase their contributions.

Trends in crude C4 production are driven largely by ethylene cracker operating rates and feedstock selection. Because the economic value of crude C4s is relatively low compared with ethylene and other major cracker products, fluctuations in the C4 olefins market do not significantly influence cracker run rates or feedslate choices. Consequently, participants in the global butadiene and C4 value chain are inherently “price takers,” shaped by broader ethylene market dynamics rather than being able to direct them.

Long-term outlook to 2060

The World Analysis – Butadiene provides an in-depth assessment of the global butadiene market, offering comprehensive analysis and strategic insights into the key developments that shape the long-term supply, demand, trade, and pricing outlooks. This service equips industry participants with the analytical foundation needed to navigate market volatility and anticipate structural shifts across the butadiene value chain.

Subscribers gain access to a full suite of reports, data files, analytical tools, and visualization modules, available online and downloadable from our website, including:

• A strategic report outlining critical insights and the future trajectory of global and regional benzene markets

• Online Data Browser access to supply, demand, and capacity databases

• Continuously updated company/shareholder capacity listings, capacity integration analysis, and rankings of top producers/consumers, including surplus/deficit capacity profiles

• A comprehensive Data Appendix (Excel) featuring supply/demand and capacity tables, plus a dashboard with standard visualizations for all countries and regions

• Excel data files with long-range supply/demand graphics and benzene price forecasts through 2060, along with detailed trade grids showing country- and region-level trade flows with 5- and 10-year projections

• An interactive online dashboard visualizing capacity, integration, supply/demand balances, trade flows, and price, cost, and margin forecasts

• Explanatory Notes detailing data sources, methodology, assumptions, units, conversion factors, and full World Analysis deliverables

• Energy and macroeconomic assumptions used in the long-term outlook

• Price assessment methodology and forecasting framework

In addition to detailed analysis of butadiene, this service provides capacity data and concise market commentary for a wide range of key C4 and derivative products, including ABS resins, adiponitrile, K-Resin/SBC, methyl methacrylate-butadiene-styrene (MBS), nitrile rubber, nitrile latex, polybutadiene rubber, polychloroprene rubber, SB rubber (emulsion and solution), SB latex, thermoplastic elastomers/SBS, C4 hydrogenation, 1,4-hexadiene, 1,5,9-cyclododecatriene, 5-ethylidene norbornene, and other butadiene derivatives.

The World Analysis offers an extensive dataset covering capacities, production, demand, and trade across all major producing and consuming countries, regions, and global markets. While robust data collection provides the foundation for understanding historical trends and future outlooks, the true value for clients lies in the expert interpretation and strategic analysis applied to this information.

Maintaining data accuracy is essential to high-quality market insight. Input from participants directly engaged in the global C4 and butadiene value chain plays a critical role in validating market assumptions and ensuring that the conclusions presented reflect realistic and actionable industry dynamics.

Long-term outlook to 2060