Market Advisory Service - China Polyolefins (Mandarin)

Duration: Short-term – 3-month price forecast and market outlook

Polypropylene and polyethylene, as the dominant global commodity raw materials, are receiving heightened attention amid surging supply and weakening demand in China. The country is undergoing an unprecedented wave of capacity additions, driven by goals to enhance self-sufficiency, upgrade product portfolios, and fast-track construction ahead of 2030 in alignment with Dual Carbon emissions targets. However, this aggressive supply-side expansion is increasingly misaligned with a declining trend in end-use demand.

China’s softening macroeconomic environment has significantly slowed domestic polyolefin consumption compared to the rapid growth observed in previous years. Most polyolefins are consumed in rigid and flexible packaging for daily consumer use, while only a small portion goes into durable goods—sectors that are more vulnerable to economic downturns. As a result, demand linked to consumer packaging has remained relatively resilient, while demand for industrial and infrastructure-related applications has softened amid declining fixed asset investment across manufacturing, property, and public infrastructure sectors.

Additionally, the recent escalation in trade tensions between China and the United States has added further downward pressure on price volatility and overall market sentiment. The imbalance between supply and demand is expected to persist—or potentially widen—given significant changes on both ends. This could lead to prolonged low operating rates and possibly even capacity rationalization, as actual production growth in recent years has lagged far behind new capacity additions.

Despite these headwinds, China remains the primary driver of global plastics demand growth, continuing to attract trade flows from major low-cost producers.

Comprehensive monthly market price, supply, demand, and trade data and analysis for:

• Polyethylene (PE)
• Polypropylene (PP)

Duration: Short-term – 3-month price forecast and market outlook

Supply-demand fundamentals and cost dynamics remain the most critical factors shaping the operations and strategies of stakeholders across the polyolefins value chain. A disciplined and accurate approach to tracking China’s domestic capacity and actual production—factoring in both scheduled maintenance and unplanned outages—is essential for understanding supply conditions. At the same time, end-use demand plays a pivotal role in gauging the market’s ability to absorb the rapid expansion in China’s polyolefin supply, both in recent years and in the years ahead.

This understanding is especially crucial as market participants navigate the current trough in the cycle, amid heightened volatility in feedstock and energy prices and an evolving global landscape. Suppliers’ cost competitiveness, influenced by these shifts, remains a key consideration.

With robust, practical modeling tools and strong market connectivity, Chemical Market Analytics (CMA) delivers unique insights and actionable analysis to help market players confront today’s increasingly complex and challenging environment—not just to survive, but to thrive. Additionally, CMA offers deep expertise across the entire plastics value chain—from upstream oil and gas through to downstream end-users of polymer raw materials—positioning it as the trusted provider of data, intelligence, and strategic insight for the industry.

Duration: Short-term – 3-month price forecast and market outlook