Market Advisory Service - China Polyolefins (Mandarin)

Duration: Short-term – 3-month price forecast and market outlook

Polypropylene and polyethylene markets continue to face significant pressure as China enters an unprecedented wave of capacity expansions—driven by self-sufficiency strategies, product-mix upgrading, and accelerated pre-2030 project timelines aligned with Dual Carbon objectives—while domestic demand growth slows. Softer macroeconomic conditions, weaker industrial production, and declining fixed-asset investment have reduced consumption in durable goods and infrastructure-related sectors, though packaging demand has remained relatively resilient. Rising uncertainty amid U.S.–China trade tensions may further dampen market sentiment and heighten price volatility. With substantial new polyolefin capacity scheduled to start up through 2028, supply is expected to outpace demand, widening the imbalance, lowering operating rates, and potentially triggering localized rationalization as production growth lags capacity additions. Despite these pressures, China will remain the leading driver of global polyolefin demand growth and a critical export destination for cost-competitive international producers.

Comprehensive monthly market price, supply, demand, and trade data and analysis for:

• Polyethylene (PE)
• Polypropylene (PP)

Duration: Short-term – 3-month price forecast and market outlook

Supply-demand fundamentals and cost dynamics remain the most critical factors shaping the operations and strategies of stakeholders across the polyolefins value chain. A disciplined and accurate approach to tracking China’s domestic capacity and actual production—factoring in both scheduled maintenance and unplanned outages—is essential for understanding supply conditions. At the same time, end-use demand plays a pivotal role in gauging the market’s ability to absorb the rapid expansion in China’s polyolefin supply, both in recent years and in the years ahead.

This understanding is especially crucial as market participants navigate the current trough in the cycle, amid heightened volatility in feedstock and energy prices and an evolving global landscape. Suppliers’ cost competitiveness, influenced by these shifts, remains a key consideration.

With robust, practical modeling tools and strong market connectivity, Chemical Market Analytics (CMA) delivers unique insights and actionable analysis to help market players confront today’s increasingly complex and challenging environment—not just to survive, but to thrive. Additionally, CMA offers deep expertise across the entire plastics value chain—from upstream oil and gas through to downstream end-users of polymer raw materials—positioning it as the trusted provider of data, intelligence, and strategic insight for the industry.

Duration: Short-term – 3-month price forecast and market outlook