World Analysis - Polyester

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050

Polyethylene terephthalate (commonly referred to as PET or polyester) is the common chemical name for the polymer used to make polyester fibers, PET packaging resins, and oriented PET (OPET) films. The sum total of the various forms of polyester fibers (staple, textile filament, industrial filament, etc.) accounts for two-thirds of the global polyester market; PET packaging resins account for less than 30% and the remainder consists of OPET films and other end uses. Global growth in the packaging resins sector, including films, has been slowing below the growth rate of fibers, but over the medium and longer term will keep pace with fibers.

Population growth and higher per capita consumption by the growing middle classes in developing countries are driving global demand growth for all types of fibers, including cotton, polyester, nylon, viscose, wool, and acrylic. Polyester fiber now commands more than 50% of the global fibers market and is the largest fiber type by volume. Its advantaged cost position, ease of production and performance characteristics relative to competing materials have positioned polyester fiber to account for the largest share of demand growth among all natural and synthetic fibers. PET packaging resin growth today is primarily the result of organic growth in beverage bottles. Along with usage in the food packing segment, health drinks are also driving more PET consumption. However, pressures to use recycled PET (rPET) are building from both brands and retailers.

Globally, most of the collected PET waste is used by the fiber industry as a lower-cost substitute for virgin resins/raw materials, primarily for non-critical fiberfill applications. Typically, rPET used in fiber production has less stringent quality requirements when compared to packaging resins, especially for beverage containers. The cleaning and processing costs to make rPET suitable for beverage bottles often push the production cost of rPET above the cost of virgin resins, although major brand owners are becoming more willing to pay premium prices for rPET.

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050

Summary

• Maximize negotiating leverage with forward-looking country-specific supply-demand data.
• Develop a winning strategy based on growth projections of market segments worldwide.
• Gain clarity evaluating investment opportunities and analyzing market leadership out to 2050.
• Mitigate risk with data about emerging international trade flows.

Elaboration

The World Analysis – Polyester provides a comprehensive analysis and key insights of critical market developments as they shape the future outlook for the global polyester market.

The following reports, data files, analytical tools and visualization modules are available online and can be downloaded from our website:

• Report outlining key strategic insights and the future shape of global and regional markets.
• Data Appendix (Excel) with supply/demand and capacity tables
• Explanatory Notes detailing data sources, methodologies, unit and conversion factors, and World Analysis deliverables.
• Energy and Economy assumptions
• Price, cost and margin base assumptions forecast and sensitivities analysis, and price assessment methodology.
• Excel data files with standard supply/demand graphics and price forecasts extended to 2050; trade grids with country and region trade flows.
• Online dashboard providing visualization of capacity, supply/demand and price, cost and margin forecasts.
• Supply/demand and capacity database access via Data Browser
• Capacity by company/shareholder, capacity integration, top producer/consumer and surplus/deficit capacity ranking

Capacity and textual analysis is provided for the following products:

• PET Bottle Resin
• Polyester Filament Yarn
• Polyester Staple Fiber
• Polyester Industrial Filament
• Polyester Textile Filament
• Polyester Bulk Continuous Filament

This World Analysis contains detailed information on capacities, production, demand and trade for all significant producing and consuming countries and regions. Although data gathering is essential for the understanding of history and potential future trends, we believe that the interpretation and analysis of the data is the most valuable part for our clients.

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050