World Analysis – Propylene

Long-term outlook to 2060

Propylene is the second-largest volume petrochemical after ethylene and serves as a critical building block for a wide range of downstream organic chemicals. Like ethylene, propylene has virtually no direct consumer use and must be converted into derivative products. Its most significant outlet is polypropylene (PP) production, which consumes roughly 70% of global propylene supply. Propylene is also a key feedstock for major industrial chemicals such as acrylonitrile, propylene oxide, and oxo alcohols, each supporting large and diverse end-use markets.

Commercial propylene is produced predominantly as a coproduct in ethylene steam crackers and in fluidized catalytic cracking (FCC) units within crude oil refineries. Propylene can also be manufactured as an on-purpose product via propane dehydrogenation (PDH), olefin metathesis, or methanol-to-olefins (MTO) technologies—routes that have grown in prominence as global demand for polypropylene continues to expand.

In a steam cracker, propylene is typically the second-largest coproduct after ethylene. This coproduct is so essential that many facilities are referred to broadly as olefins plants. Unless ethane is used as the feedstock, propylene output generally ranges from 40% to 60% of ethylene production, depending on feed slate and operating conditions. Within olefins units, propylene is produced through pyrolysis and purified into either chemical-grade (92–96% purity) or polymer-grade (99.5% purity) streams, both of which require removal of diolefins, acetylenes, and other impurities.

Refinery FCC units generate propylene with purities in the range of 65–80%, depending on process severity. Refinery-grade propylene can be used in multiple applications, including acid alkylation, polymer gasoline (dimersol), propane blending, and direct chemical production such as cumene, isopropanol, and oligomer derivatives. It may also be upgraded into chemical-grade or polymer-grade propylene when FCC units are designed for enhanced propylene recovery.

Among on-purpose technologies, propane dehydrogenation (PDH) currently represents the largest dedicated route to propylene production and continues to expand its share of global supply.

Long-term outlook to 2060

The World Analysis—Propylene provides an in-depth assessment of the global propylene market, providing comprehensive analysis and strategic insights into the key developments shaping long-term supply, demand, trade, and pricing outlooks. This service equips industry participants with the analytical foundation needed to navigate market volatility and anticipate structural shifts across the propylene value chain.

Subscribers gain access to a full suite of reports, data files, analytical tools, and visualization modules, available online and downloadable from our website, including:

• A strategic report outlining critical insights and the future trajectory of global and regional markets

• Online Data Browser access to supply, demand, and capacity databases

• Continuously updated company/shareholder capacity listings, capacity integration analysis, and rankings of top producers/consumers, including surplus/deficit capacity profiles

• A comprehensive Data Appendix (Excel) featuring supply/demand and capacity tables, plus a dashboard with standard visualizations for all countries and regions

• Excel data files with long-range supply/demand graphics and price forecasts through 2060, along with detailed trade grids showing country- and region-level trade flows with 5- and 10-year projections

• An interactive online dashboard visualizing capacity, integration, supply/demand balances, trade flows, and price, cost, and margin forecasts

• Explanatory Notes detailing data sources, methodology, assumptions, units, conversion factors, and full World Analysis deliverables

• Energy and macroeconomic assumptions used in the long-term outlook

• Price assessment methodology and forecasting framework

This World Analysis provides detailed intelligence on capacities, production, demand, and trade across all major producing and consuming countries, regions, and global hubs. While robust data collection underpins the historical and forward views, the true value of the service lies in the expert interpretation and market analysis applied by our global team.

Data verification is a central pillar of our approach. Direct engagement with key industry participants ensures that our conclusions reflect real-world market behavior and deliver the most accurate, realistic forward outlook for the global industry.

Long-term outlook to 2060