World Analysis – Butadiene

  • Market Overview
  • Key Benefits
  • Service Features
  • Annual Table of Contents

Market Overview

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050

Butadiene demand is dominated by synthetic rubbers primarily used in tire production. The two major commodity types of synthetic rubber, polybutadiene rubber (PBR) and styrene-butadiene rubber (E-SBR and S-SBR), presently account for over 50% of global butadiene demand. Other large consumption segments include acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS), styrene-butadiene latex (SBL), nitrile latex (NBL), and adiponitrile (ADN, a nylon 6,6 feedstock). Smaller, but still key demand segments, include nitrile rubber (NBR), polychloroprene (PCR), and thermoplastic elastomers (TPE). While mobility, including tire and auto parts, play by far the largest role in butadiene demand, other industries producing electronics, plastics (HIPS), carpet, paper, and appliances also influence the global butadiene market.

As it has been since the mid-1970s, the current source of butadiene molecules is overwhelmingly the steam cracker, with primary production being ethylene. In this way, the butadiene market is currently different from other petrochemical commodities, such as propylene, which can look to multiple sources, such as refineries and on-purpose production, for incremental supply. This lack of a major alternative source makes it critical for participants in the C4 olefins market to understand the future dynamics of crude C4 supply. Alternative supply sources will maintain their roughly 5–6% production share over the forecast period, although traditional butylene dehydrogenation will lose share while methanol-to-olefins/coal-to-olefins (MTO/CTO) and biobased production will increase. Trends in crude C4 production from ethylene crackers are a function of cracker operating rates and feedstock selection. The value of crude C4s to ethylene producers is not great enough for changes in the C4 olefins markets to impact decisions about either cracker operating rates or feedslates. As a result, C4 industry players are ethylene market trend takers and not makers.

Key Benefits

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050

The World Analysis – Butadiene presents a thorough examination and essential observations of significant market advancements that influence the prospective landscape of the butadiene market worldwide. The service consists of reports, data files, analytical tools and visualization modules:

  • Direct Access to the Subject Matter Experts
  • In-depth exploration of present market strategic insights, recognition of key challenges, and presentation of our experts’ forecasts and analysis
  • Forecast future shape of global and regional markets. 
  • Explanatory Notes detailing data sources, methodologies, unit and conversion factors, and World Analysis deliverables. 
  • Energy and Economy assumptions  
  • Price assessment methodology, including price definitions across all regions. 
  • Price, cost and margin base assumptions forecast and sensitivities analysis. 
  • Excel data files with standard supply/demand graphics and price forecasts extended to 2050, trade grids with country and regional trade flows Data appendix (Excel) with supply/demand, capacity and trade tables. 
  • Online dashboard providing visualization of capacity, supply/demand, trade grids, and price, cost and margin forecasts.   
  • Supply/demand and capacity database access via data browser 
  • Capacity by company/shareholder, capacity integration, top producer/consumer and surplus/deficit capacity ranking, and ownership/subsidiary information  

In addition to the main product, butadiene, capacity data and brief textual analysis are provided for the following products: ABS Resins, Adiponitrile, K-Resin/ SBC, Methyl Methacrylate-Butadiene-Styrene (MBS), Nitrile Rubber, Nitrile Latex, Polybutadiene Rubber, Polychloroprene Rubber, SB Rubber (emulsion & solution), SB Latex, Thermoplastic Elastomers/ SBS, C4s Hydrogenation, 1,4 Hexadiene, 1,5,9 Cyclododecatriene, 5-Ethylidene norbornene, and Other Butadiene Derivatives. 

This World Analysis contains detailed information on capacities, production, demand and trade for all significant producing and consuming countries, geographies and regions. Although data gathering is essential for the understanding of history and potential future trends, we believe that the interpretation and analysis of the data is the most valuable part for our clients.

Verifying the data is critical to the quality of the analysis, and the input our teams get from direct participants in the global business is most important in arriving at realistic conclusions.

Service Features

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050


Frequency: Bi-annual
Format: Excel
Timeframe: 1990 – 2050
Area Coverage:By country/region; include “hypothetical” capacity changes in the forecast period
Chemical Coverage: Crude C4s, Butadiene


Frequency: updated daily
Format: Excel
Timeframe: 10-year forecasts available from periods 1990 – 2050

  • Nameplate capacity on individual plant location by producer and by the shareholder for main study products + key derivatives.
  • Integration table and top producer and consumer ranking tables (includes net surplus/deficit).
Chemical Coverage: Butadiene, ABS Resins, Adiponitrile, K-Resin/SBC, Methyl Methacrylate-Butadiene-Styrene (MBS), Nitrile Rubber, Nitrile Latex, Polybutadiene Rubber, Polychloroprene Rubber, SB Rubber (emulsion & solution), SB Latex, Thermoplastic Elastomers/ SBS, C4s Hydrogenation, Other Butadiene Derivatives, 1,4 Hexadiene, 1,5,9-Cyclododecatriene, 5-Ethylidene norbornene


Frequency: Quarterly
Format: Excel
Timeframe: up to 2050
Area Coverage: Forecasts for US, Europe & Asia w/ qualitative sensitivities.
Chemical Coverage: Butadiene


Frequency: Updated daily
Format: Excel
Timeframe: 10-year forecasts available from periods 1990 – 2050
Chemical Coverage: Butadiene


Frequency: Bi-annual
Format: Excel
Timeframe: 1 year of history, up to 10 years of forecast
Area Coverage:Between partner countries and by region
Chemical Coverage: Butadiene


Frequency: Annual
Format: PDF/HTML
Timeframe: 5-year history, forecast to 2050

  • Regional market summaries. Production economics/snapshots for selected regions/processes.
  • Production process/technology overview
Chemical Coverage: Butadiene, Crude C4


  • Access to our global team of subject matter experts
  • Interactive data visualization module (dashboard)
  • Standard supply/demand graphs
  • Data appendix with supply/demand and capacity tables
  • Supply/demand and capacity database access via data browser

Annual Table of Contents

  • Introduction 5
  • Executive Overview 6
  • Strategic Insights 9
  • Economic Forecast Update 9
  • Alternatives for surplus C4 during times of low margins or soft demand 9
  • Impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict 12
  • New US Laws that may impact petrochemical industry 14
  • North America 15
  • South America 18
  • West Europe 20
  • Central Europe 23
  • CIS & Baltic States 26
  • Africa 29
  • Middle East 32
  • Indian Subcontinent 35
  • Mainland China 38
  • Other Northeast Asia 41
  • Southeast Asia 44
  • Production Process Overview 47
  • Introduction 47
  • Extractive Distillation 47
  • BASF Process 47
  • One-Step Process 48
  • Nippon Zeon Process 49
  • KBR/Shell Process 49
  • Dehydrogenation Processes 50
  • Dehydrogenation of n-Butane 50
  • Dehydrogenation of n-Butenes 51
  • Hydrogenation of Crude C4 52
  • Selective Hydrogenation 52
  • Full Hydrogenation 53
  • Production Economics 54
  • Explanatory Notes 54
  • Butadiene Extraction 55
  • Dehydrogenation of n-Butane 59
  • Selective Hydrogenation of Crude C4s 60
  • Price Forecast 61
  • Methodology 61
  • World 61
  • Crude C4s 61
  • Butadiene 62
  • United States 63
  • Crude C4s 63
  • Butadiene 64
  • West Europe 65
  • Crude C4s 65
  • Butadiene 66
  • Northeast Asia 66
  • Crude C4s 66
  • Butadiene 67
  • Butadiene Tables 68
  • Supply/Demand Forecast Methodology 69
  • Appendix 73
  • Sources of Butadiene 73
  • Co-cracking of Crude C4s and Butadiene 76

Market Coverage





Anthony Song

Anthony Song Executive Director, APAC C4 & Elastomers Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Anthony Song is the Executive Director for APAC C4 & Elastomers at Chemical Market Analytics. Anthony (Young Ho) Song is the executive director for C4 olefins, derivatives, and natural rubber in Asia outside of mainland China at Chemical Market Analytics. He has over 20 years of experience in the petrochemical industry, mainly in the olefins business but also in chlor alkali and aromatics. Within the Asia region, he works closely with petrochemical, oil and financial industries, bringing support and guidance throughout the petrochemical chain. He is currently the service leader for the Asia C4 weekly report and contributes to the global outlook for C4 and elastomer reports. Anthony started his career as a petrochemical trader at Hanwha Corporation in Korea. His duties were to trade various gas products, including light and C4 olefins products, in Asia. He has spent about a year in Dubai as a regional expert program by Hanwha Group, researching and developing future strategic programs within the Middle East, from product development to investment portfolio. In 2008, he came to Singapore as a trading team manager at Hanwha International (overseas office in Singapore). Anthony graduated from Boston University with a Bachelor of Arts in Economics.  
Bill Hyde

Bill Hyde Vice President, Olefins and Elastomers Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Bill Hyde is the Vice President of Olefins & Elastomers at Chemical Market Analytics. Mr. Hyde is a member of Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS, A Dow Jones Company. He leads a group that analyzes markets related to C4 Olefins, synthetic and natural rubber, and tire raw materials. He has been consulting in this market since 2002. Hyde began his career with the Union Carbide Corporation in 1990, where he had various positions, including production engineering, optimization, planning, and logistics. In 2000, he joined Texas Petrochemicals as a Business Analyst. In 2002, Hyde joined CMAI, which was acquired by IHS in 2011, in the Olefins Consulting Practice, focusing on C4 Olefins and rubber, assuming responsibility for that practice in 2006. The Base Chemicals Group of HIS Markit, which includes the C4 Olefins and Elastomers Practice, was divested to News Corp in June 2022 and became Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS, A Dow Jones Company. He has published several papers on the Olefins and Elastomers industries and presented at numerous Olefins and Elastomers Conferences worldwide. Hyde has BSc and MSc Degrees in Chemical Engineering from Brigham Young University and an M.B.A. from Tulane University.
Remko Koster

Remko Koster Executive Director, EMEA C4 Olefins Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

Remko Koster is the Executive Director for C4 olefins and derivatives in Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Chemical Market Analytics.. During his time with the company, he has taken various roles across a broad range of product areas. With over 20 years of experience, Remko is a key resource within the business for understanding and insight into the C4 and derivatives sector of the petrochemical industry. Within the EMEA region, he works closely with the petrochemical, oil and tire industries, bringing support and guidance throughout the petrochemical chain. His current area of focus includes oversight of the ‘Global Tire Type Indices Report’, primary input and insight for the ‘Global C4 Olefins & Elastomers Report’, as well as for the World Butadiene, MTBE, Rubber, and Butylenes analyses. His prior experience includes more than ten years of industrial experience with SABIC, including commercial responsibilities for C4 streams and aromatics and as a global market intelligence leader for polypropylene. Remko joined our company in 2011 as a polyethylene and polypropylene consultant for EMEA, contributing to the ‘Global Plastics & Polymers Report service’ and for World Polyethylene and Polypropylene Analysis. Remko Koster has a Ph.D. in Chemistry from the University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
William Chen, PhD

William Chen, PhD Executive Director, Asia Olefins and Derivatives Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS

William Chen is an Executive Director of the Asia Olefins and Derivatives at Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS, a Dow Jones Company. Dr. William Chen is the Executive Director at Chemical Market Analytics. He leads Asia Olefins' business and has research responsibilities for providing insight into the dynamics associated with the ethylene, propylene, C4, and derivatives value chain markets. Provide thought leadership on the markets relating to supply, demand, price and economics, as well as competitive dynamics and changing industry structural elements. William also leads Asia Olefins' business for strategic growth and provides ongoing commercial management. Focus on nurturing client relationships and deepening services as part of clients’ commercial and strategic decision-making processes. Nurture relationships with clients, including SOEs, POEs and MNCs, to deepen services in clients’ commercial and strategic decision-making processes. William has been involved in many petrochemical consulting projects and client studies, including the China Coal Chemical Study, Global Propane Dehydrogenation Research, and Refinery-cracker/aromatic complex feasibility study. Before Chemical Market Analytics, William worked for ChemChina. William started as a chemical engineer at the company at a Lanzhou fiber plant in Northwest China. Then, he moved back to Beijing to focus on downstream application development. In the last two years with ChemChina, William took charge of sales and marketing responsibility in NE Asia. William earned a Ph.D from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and majored in Polymer Chemistry and Physics. William is based in Beijing, China.

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