World Analysis – Butadiene

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050

Butadiene demand is dominated by synthetic rubbers primarily used in tire production. The two major commodity types of synthetic rubber, polybutadiene rubber (PBR) and styrene-butadiene rubber (E-SBR and S-SBR), presently account for over 50% of global butadiene demand. Other large consumption segments include acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS), styrene-butadiene latex (SBL), nitrile latex (NBL), and adiponitrile (ADN, a nylon 6,6 feedstock). Smaller, but still key demand segments, include nitrile rubber (NBR), polychloroprene (PCR), and thermoplastic elastomers (TPE). While mobility, including tire and auto parts, play by far the largest role in butadiene demand, other industries producing electronics, plastics (HIPS), carpet, paper, and appliances also influence the global butadiene market.

As it has been since the mid-1970s, the current source of butadiene molecules is overwhelmingly the steam cracker, with primary production being ethylene. In this way, the butadiene market is currently different from other petrochemical commodities, such as propylene, which can look to multiple sources, such as refineries and on-purpose production, for incremental supply. This lack of a major alternative source makes it critical for participants in the C4 olefins market to understand the future dynamics of crude C4 supply. Alternative supply sources will maintain their roughly 5–6% production share over the forecast period, although traditional butylene dehydrogenation will lose share while methanol-to-olefins/coal-to-olefins (MTO/CTO) and biobased production will increase. Trends in crude C4 production from ethylene crackers are a function of cracker operating rates and feedstock selection. The value of crude C4s to ethylene producers is not great enough for changes in the C4 olefins markets to impact decisions about either cracker operating rates or feedslates. As a result, C4 industry players are ethylene market trend takers and not makers.

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050

The World Analysis – Butadiene presents a thorough examination and essential observations of significant market advancements that influence the prospective landscape of the butadiene market worldwide. The service consists of reports, data files, analytical tools and visualization modules:

• Direct Access to the Subject Matter Experts
• In-depth exploration of present market strategic insights, recognition of key challenges, and presentation of our experts’ forecasts and analysis
• Forecast future shape of global and regional markets. 
• Explanatory Notes detailing data sources, methodologies, unit and conversion factors, and World Analysis deliverables. 
• Energy and Economy assumptions  
• Price assessment methodology, including price definitions across all regions. 
• Price, cost and margin base assumptions forecast and sensitivities analysis. 
• Excel data files with standard supply/demand graphics and price forecasts extended to 2050, trade grids with country and regional trade flows Data appendix (Excel) with supply/demand, capacity and trade tables. 
• Online dashboard providing visualization of capacity, supply/demand, trade grids, and price, cost and margin forecasts.   
• Supply/demand and capacity database access via data browser 
• Capacity by company/shareholder, capacity integration, top producer/consumer and surplus/deficit capacity ranking, and ownership/subsidiary information  

In addition to the main product, butadiene, capacity data and brief textual analysis are provided for the following products: ABS Resins, Adiponitrile, K-Resin/ SBC, Methyl Methacrylate-Butadiene-Styrene (MBS), Nitrile Rubber, Nitrile Latex, Polybutadiene Rubber, Polychloroprene Rubber, SB Rubber (emulsion & solution), SB Latex, Thermoplastic Elastomers/ SBS, C4s Hydrogenation, 1,4 Hexadiene, 1,5,9 Cyclododecatriene, 5-Ethylidene norbornene, and Other Butadiene Derivatives. 

This World Analysis contains detailed information on capacities, production, demand and trade for all significant producing and consuming countries, geographies and regions. Although data gathering is essential for the understanding of history and potential future trends, we believe that the interpretation and analysis of the data is the most valuable part for our clients.

Verifying the data is critical to the quality of the analysis, and the input our teams get from direct participants in the global business is most important in arriving at realistic conclusions.

Duration: Long-term outlook to 2050