Hydrogen obtained from renewable electricity or “green hydrogen” has long been hailed as a cornerstone of the Energy Transition — poised to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors like refining, steelmaking, fertilizer and chemical production, while also offering long-term energy storage potential.

Recent slowdowns in the Energy Transition, notably due to cost and inflationary pressures, challenges associated with a still nascent industry and changes in the political climate, have led to a growing prominence in the role of transitional fuels such as natural gas and natural gas-derived hydrogen or “grey/blue hydrogen”. Consequently, this raises questions about green hydrogen’s near-term viability. Meanwhile, shifting global trade dynamics — including new tariffs and protectionist policies — are casting uncertainty over future hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol trade flows.