Alchemy Edition 9

Edition 9: The New Industrial Order –
How geopolitics, energy security and strategic policy are reshaping global chemical markets.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 did more than temporarily disrupt global supply chains—it fundamentally reshaped the global energy and chemicals landscape. Beyond the immediate market dislocation, the Middle East conflict has introduced a more persistent risk premium across Gulf-based assets, accelerating structural shifts in macroeconomic conditions, trade patterns, and global investment flows.

For decades, competitiveness in global chemical markets was driven primarily by delivered-cost economics. That framework is now being challenged by a new operating reality, in which geopolitical risk, energy security, industrial policy, supply-chain resilience, and national strategic priorities are playing an increasingly decisive role in determining where capital is deployed and how industries compete.

This issue examines the cascading effects of that strategic realignment across global energy and chemical markets.

In mainland China, the disruption created a highly favorable “golden window” for the coal-to-chemicals (CTC) sector, as traditional oil-based production routes came under pressure. At the same time, global ammonia and urea markets were pushed into extreme volatility as supply disruptions reverberated across major producing and consuming regions.

The crisis also exposed the vulnerabilities of markets that remain heavily dependent on imported petrochemical feedstocks. Brazil, in particular, faces heightened risk because of its reliance on imported naphtha, underscoring the growing strategic importance of feedstock security and supply diversification.

Meanwhile, governments are assuming a more active role in shaping chemical markets through increasingly assertive industrial policy. As trade, defense, energy security, and manufacturing strategies become more closely interconnected, new opportunities are emerging for specialty chemical producers positioned to support national defense infrastructure, aerospace, and other strategically important industries.

As the global chemical industry continues to be transformed by geopolitical conflict, evolving regulation, industrial policy, and emerging technologies, navigating this environment requires a broader and more multidimensional perspective.

Chemical Market Analytics, part of Dow Jones Energy, brings together expertise across risk, energy, and chemicals to assess how these fast-moving forces are reshaping global supply chains, industry economics, investment decisions, and competitive dynamics.

Table of Contents

• Global Energy and Feedstock Markets: The Post-Hormuz Strategic Realignment (Page 5 – 12)
• Soaring Oil and Gas Prices Unlock a ‘Golden Window’ for Mainland China’s Coal-to-Chemicals Industry (Page 15 – 18)
• Global Defense Strategies and the Chemical Sector (Page 20 – 24)
• Global Ammonia and Urea Fortunes in Flux amid Search for Equilibrium (Page 30 – 34)
• The Evolving Global Soda Ash Landscape (Page 37 – 41)
• The Hormuz Shock Is the Final Warning: Brazil’s Competitiveness Is at a Crossroads (Page 44 – 46)