Session Details
Session 1: Old World – Strategic & Business Issues
This session analyzes the global economic outlook, as well as the energy landscape and what that means for the global methanol industry. The conference theme will also be explored, giving an explanation behind the two methanol worlds—grey and low carbon—and drawing a picture of the outlook for both worlds. Session One provides answers to the following key questions (among many others):
- What will energy prices mean for methanol economics and demand?
- How will methanol demand growth be influenced by the global economy and geopolitics?
- How will the two worlds of methanol evolve?
- Will we see separate pricing mechanisms for grey and low-carbon methanol?
This detailed session will provide a global overview of economic conditions throughout the world and the overall “robustness” of the energy sector during this period of extreme transition. Of particular importance, what will be the implications of both factors on the methanol industry in both the short and long term?
In the short-term, the grey methanol market looks oversupplied. Methanol demand growth is slowing down, with more reliance on traditional chemical derivatives and bunker fuel and less on MTO and conventional fuels applications. The demand for low-carbon methanol in all of its colours is increasing, but will there be enough low-carbon methanol to satisfy demand, where will these new units be built and how will they compete economically against world-scale methanol units?.
Ammonia is another option for companies looking to monetize natural gas and can be co-produced with methanol. This presentation looks at the global industry landscape and the demand outlook for the main end-use applications. It also analyses the potential for green ammonia. It considers the role that ammonia could play as a marine bunker fuel and compares the pros and cons of ammonia and methanol as zero-sulfur and low or zero-carbon fuels for the shipping industry.
Session 2: Old World – Regional Methanol Focus
The Chemical Market Analytics regional consultants will highlight the different characteristics and outlooks for the major methanol regions, covering geopolitical impacts, production, new projects for both grey and green methanol, demand by major derivatives and inter-regional trade. The following key questions will be discussed and answered during this key conversation:
- Where will we see new grey and green capacity being developed and why?
- How will this influence methanol trade flows?
- How competitive are olefins produced via methanol? What is the outlook for Methanol to Olefins?
- Will more MTO units be built?
- Will West Europe remain a major importer of methanol?
- Will the Middle East continue to act as the world’s swing producer?
Asia is the world’s largest methanol producer, consumer and importer. Current methanol feedstocks are almost exclusively fossil fuel-based in Asia. Methanol plays an important role in energy transition and sustainability development. As growth into MTO and conventional fuels applications declines, future demand will be driven more by traditional chemical derivatives. The industry is beginning its decarbonization journey, with new technologies and feedstocks and some consumers looking to purchase green, not grey methanol. This speech will discuss the anticipated evolution of the Asian methanol industry, the implications for pricing, supply-demand, trade, and the types of companies participating in the market.
At the heart of Europe’s dynamic energy sector, grey methanol production, derived from fossil resources, stands at a crossroads between traditional industrial practices and the increasingly urgent need for sustainability. This presentation aims to offer a thorough analysis of the challenges and opportunities confronting the methanol industry in Europe. We will explore how these challenges are influencing the future of methanol production across the continent.
The Americas’ methanol market will see another large increase in capacity this year, but global economic headwinds and a lack of new applications will make it challenging for demand to absorb incremental production over the next few years. This session will review how the regional industry is expected to overcome these challenges in the near term while also looking to develop its role in a world demanding options to reduce it’s carbon footprint.
The Middle East is a significant grey methanol production hub, targeting exports to Europe, India and China due to its natural gas resources and low regional demand. Despite low production costs, challenges like sanctions, logistical hurdles, and the push for green alternatives complicate the forecast. This presentation will examine grey methanol’s complex role in the Middle East, analyzing its impact on sustainability and exploring its potential evolution.
Session 3: Old World – Derivative Focus
Some of the main chemical derivatives markets will be explored in more detail, highlighting where new capacity is likely to be built, growth prospects, demand drivers, and the impact of the chemical industry’s journey to decarbonize. In this session, attendees will learn key market intelligence surrounding the following:
- Is there a danger that new formaldehyde exposure restrictions will decrease its demand?
- How are acetylated wood and the solar industry driving growth in the Acetyls industry?
- Why has the MMA market had such a rollercoaster ride?
Formaldehyde is the largest global methanol derivative, consuming around 1 in 4 tons of methanol in 2023. This presentation will look at the various uses for formaldehyde, their growth rates, and what is driving this growth. It will also discuss the topic of toxicity evaluations of formaldehyde and how this could impact formaldehyde and its derivative supply chains.
The global acetyls industry is growing at a healthy pace, yet there are challenges with governments, consumers, and industries pushing for safer, more sustainable solutions. This presentation will give insights regarding the current state of the acetyls industry in light of this transition to a greener future including the technology & process, sustainability considerations, road to commercialization and cooperation and distribution with HELM.
MTO remains a relatively high-cost manufacturing route to olefins. In the medium term, the global ethylene and propylene markets are oversupplied, putting pressure on MTO operating rates and economics. This presentation will analyze what is driving growth for ethylene and propylene when operating rates are expected to return to more typical levels, and what role MTO producers are likely to play in these olefins markets.
Session 4: Old World – Fuel Uses for Methanol
The outlook for methanol demand into the main fuel markets will be analyzed. This will include the likely influence of legislation and the impact of energy transition at the national and corporate levels. Join us as the answers to the questions posed below and many more are addressed in this “can’t miss” session:
- When will demand for methanol as a gasoline blendstock and for MTBE peak and what does their subsequent decline look like?
- Does M100 really have realistic growth potential in China?
- Will the sustainability agenda mean that no more coal-based units will be built in China?
- Does the biodiesel industry rely on government blending mandates for its growth?
- Is there any future for DME outside China?
Norbert Baum
Vice President Global Business Development HELM AG
Read BioXiaomeng Ma
Director, Asia Methanol Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS
Read BioMike Nash
Vice President, Global Syngas Team Lead | Americas Acetyls Lead Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS
Read BioJavier Ortiz
Director, North & South America Methanol Lead Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS
Read BioCarl Roache
Executive Director, Ammonia and Urea Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS
Read BioMatthew Thoelke
Vice President, EMEA Olefins Chemical Market Analytics by OPIS
Read Bio