Shanghai Forum: Rethinking Petrochemicals Beyond Volatility

Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East (MDE) conflict—whether it persists or de-escalates—is injecting volatility into global energy and chemical feedstocks, amplifying existing cost divergence across ethane, LPG, naphtha, and coal. In the near term, risk premiums, elevated freight and insurance costs, and cautious operating behavior are tightening supply chains and driving price fluctuations, even without sustained physical disruptions. If tensions ease, some of these pressures may unwind; however, the episode is likely to leave a lasting impact by reinforcing the importance of feedstock diversification, energy security, and supply chain resilience. Over the longer term, resource-advantaged regions are expected to strengthen their competitive position, while import-dependent markets remain structurally exposed to geopolitical risk.

中东地缘冲突后续演化仍存高度不确定性，无论局势持续升级还是阶段性缓和，均已加剧全球能源及化工原料市场波动，进一步拉大乙烷、液化石油气、石脑油与煤炭之间的成本分化格局。短期来看，即便尚未形成持续性实质物流中断，风险溢价抬升、海运及保险成本走高，叠加产业链主体避险的开工举措，已造成全球供应链收紧，助推大宗商品价格宽幅震荡。若后续地缘紧张情绪边际缓和，上述阶段性扰动压力有望逐步缓释；但本轮事件或将产生长期深远影响，市场将更加重视原料多元化布局、能源安全保障以及供应链韧性建设。中长期维度下，具备资源禀赋优势的区域将持续巩固自身成本竞争壁垒，而高度依赖进口的消费市场，仍将在结构层面持续暴露于地缘政治风险之中。

Amid heightened volatility in the global LPG market, the OPIS Mont Belvieu benchmark has become a cornerstone of global pricing. This session will start with an overview of market trends and price dynamics, introduce the Mont Belvieu methodology, and examine its impact on Asian delivered prices and arbitrage economics. It will also illustrate how these price signals influence downstream olefin feedstock selection, providing a holistic view of the global LPG market and downstream feedstock economics.

在全球 LPG 市场波动加剧的背景下，北美 Mont Belvieu 基准价已成为全球定价的重要参考。本演讲将从市场趋势与价格动态出发，介绍 Mont Belvieu 的定价方法与传导逻辑，并分析其对亚洲到岸价格及跨区套利行为的作用。最后，将说明这些价格信号如何影响下游烯烃原料的选择，提供对全球 LPG 市场和下游原料经济的整体视角。

The start-up of new steam crackers and PDH units significantly increased global olefins capacity, intensifying oversupply amid weak downstream demand recovery. At the same time, persistently high costs—further pressured by recent Middle East geopolitical tensions—are compressing producer margins. Against this backdrop, the olefins industry is entering a phase of structural adjustment. This presentation explores the interplay between feedstock dynamics, macro trends, and demand, and assesses the strategic implications for market participants.

随着国内新一批蒸汽裂解和丙烷脱氢装置的投产，进一步推高全球烯烃产能；但下游需求恢复缓慢，导致烯烃市场产能过剩压力加剧。同时，烯烃企业成本高企，近期的中东冲突，将进一步推升成本压力。在当前环境下，烯烃企业如何发展，我们一起来探讨！

This presentation will cover the global PET demand landscape and regional diversity, the impacts of record capacity additions in mainland China, dynamic changes triggered by the Iran conflict, and the promising future of recycled PET, with challenges even in the most developed markets.

本次演讲将涵盖全球PET需求概览及区域性差异、中国大陆创纪录产能扩张的影响、伊朗冲突引发的新动态，以及再生PET的广阔前景，同时指出即便在最发达的市场中仍存在挑战。

Amid rising geopolitical fragmentation and great power competition, enterprises must balance compliance with sustainable growth. This presentation examines the 2026 global landscape and key geopolitical risks, alongside lessons from historical crises on navigating uncertainty.

It highlights a shift in globalization as supply and value chains are restructured, proposing an “anti-fragile” framework to build resilience across supply chains, compliance, trade, and AI-driven risk governance. Ultimately, it argues that mastering risk is a core capability for achieving high-quality growth in a complex global environment.

在地缘政治加速分化与大国博弈加剧的背景下，企业面临合规与可持续增长的双重挑战。本文将分析2026年全球格局及主要地缘政治风险，并结合历史经验探讨企业在不确定性中的应对之道。同时，聚焦全球化范式转变与产业链、供应链重构，提出“反脆弱”框架，提升企业在供应链、合规、贸易及AI风险治理等方面的韧性。最终指出，驾驭风险已成为企业实现高质量发展的核心能力。

– William Chen, Vice President, Asia Olefins | 陈伟明, 副总裁 . 亚洲烯烃
– Lujia Wang, Associate Director | 王露佳, 副总监
– Wei Lu, Associate Director, Asia Olefins | 卢伟, 副总监 . 亚洲烯烃
– Ding Wei, Executive Director, Asia Aromatics | 丁巍, 执行总监 . 亚洲芳烃
– Johnson Ma, Director, Dow Jones Risk & Compliance| 马建新, 总监, 道琼斯风险与合规

The global polyolefins market is entering a period of heightened volatility, driven by feedstock uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and shifting supply-demand balances. This presentation examines the key factors behind market fluctuations and assesses their implications for pricing, trade flows, and strategic positioning across the value chain.

在原料供应不确定性、地缘政治风险及供需格局调整的共同驱动下，全球聚烯烃市场正进入波动加剧周期。本报告将剖析市场波动背后的核心驱动因素，并评估此类因素对市场定价、贸易流向及全产业链战略布局的潜在影响。

Asian petrochemicals industry is heavily dependent on imports of energy and feedstocks from the Middle East producers. The abrupt closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely impacted these supplies. This has disrupted the operations of almost all the PE and PP producers in Asia. Let us review the impact of these disruptions on the operations and viability of the Polyolefins producers in Asia.

亚洲石化产业高度依赖从中东生产商进口能源及原料，霍尔木兹海峡的突然关闭对上述供应造成严重冲击，几乎影响了亚洲所有聚乙烯（PE）及聚丙烯（PP）生产商的正常运营。本报告将复盘此类供应扰动对亚洲聚烯烃生产商运营状况及生存能力的具体影响。

China’s polyolefins market is undergoing a structural transformation, driven by rapid capacity expansion, shifting feedstock economics, and evolving demand patterns. This presentation explores the key changes shaping the market, including supply growth, cost competitiveness, and demand dynamics, and assesses their implications for industry structure, pricing, and trade flows.

在产能快速扩张、原料经济性调整及需求格局演变的共同驱动下，中国聚烯烃市场正经历结构性转型。此报告将探讨塑造当前市场格局的核心变化，包括供应增长、成本竞争力及需求动态，并评估此类变化对行业结构、市场定价及贸易流向的潜在影响。

China’s expanding polyolefins capacity, coupled with slower domestic demand growth, is driving a structural shift toward exports, reshaping global trade flows and pricing dynamics. This presentation examines the key drivers behind China’s rising export presence and its implications for global markets, including intensified competition, greater price volatility, and shifting supply patterns.

中国聚烯烃产能持续扩张，叠加国内需求增速放缓，正推动市场向出口导向型发生结构性转变，进而重塑全球贸易流向与定价格局。此报告将剖析中国聚烯烃出口占比提升背后的核心驱动因素，并评估其对全球市场的潜在影响，包括市场竞争加剧、价格波动性增强及供应格局调整等方面。

China’s engineering plastics market is entering a new phase of structural evolution, characterized by ongoing capacity expansion, shifting supply-demand balances, and reconfigured trade flows. At the same time, recent supply chain disruptions are creating both challenges and new opportunities for China to strengthen its position in the global value chain. Against this backdrop, emerging demand from high-tech and frontier industries is becoming an increasingly important growth driver. This presentation examines these key developments and their implications for market dynamics and future growth.

中国工程塑料市场正进入结构性演变的新阶段，其核心特征体现为产能持续扩张、供需格局调整及贸易流向重构。与此同时，近期供应链扰动既给中国工程塑料行业带来挑战，也为其巩固在全球价值链中的地位创造了新机遇。在此背景下，高科技与前沿产业催生的新兴需求正逐渐成为行业增长的重要驱动力。本报告将探讨上述核心发展趋势，并评估其对市场动态及未来增长的潜在影响。

– Nick Vafiadis, Vice President, Polyolefins | 副总裁, 聚烯烃
– Utpal Sheth, Vice President, Asia Polyolefins | 副总裁, 亚洲聚烯烃
– Alan Wei, Director, China Polyolefins | 魏安岭, 总监, 中国聚烯烃
– Egypt Zhai, Associate Director, China Polyolefins | 翟媛洁, 副总监, 中国聚烯烃
– Hongyan Xu, Director, Asia Engineering Plastics | 徐红岩, 总监,亚洲工程塑料